2011 Markets Forecasts Overview; Bullish and Bearish?! = Timing
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Home Page > Finance > Investing > 2011 Markets Forecasts Overview; Bullish and Bearish?! = Timing
2011 Markets Forecasts Overview; Bullish and Bearish?! = Timing
Posted: Dec 10, 2010 |
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“A Conspiracy of Whores
BEWARE: The financial news media is doing the bidding of the Federal Reserve and begging investors to take on more risk
The financial news media is conspiring to blow up your brokerage account and flush your retirement savings down Ben Bernanke’s new commode.
I’m not saying the editors of top financial newspapers and magazine sat down together and hashed out a plan to brainwash you and bankrupt you. No, I really don’t think they did that. It only looks like they’ve done it…
The magazine cover signal is one of the best contrarian indicators around. Whenever a trend is deeply ingrained enough in the public mind to sell magazines off the newsstand, you know it’s about to end…
If we know one thing about Ben and his Fed, it’s that they don’t have anywhere near the kind of sway over the economy and banks they think they have. They think they control them. They don’t. Ben and his Fed have two options: get out of the way (out of the question) and make things worse (the evergreen choice).
It was a perfect sell signal for Treasurys, and Treasurys delivered. Since the October (Mainstream Media Publication – Ed. note) issue expressed so much confidence in our boy Ben, the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) has plummeted. It dropped from just over $102 per share to less than $96, as of Wednesday’s close. The cover might as well have said, “A little irrational exuberance never hurt anybody!“
Enter (another Mainstream Media) November 2010 issue. It features a goblin holding a handful of cash and the headline, “Be afraid (of the shaky economy, but not these bold investments).” The bold investments in question come off like four great ways to pay too much for all the risk you can stomach: emerging market stocks, junk bonds, commercial real estate, and options.”
“A Conspiracy of Whores”
Dan Ferris, Extreme Value, December 2010
“The global mega-banks may control our politicians, but they don’t control the public.
All around the world the recently subservient serfs are causing all sorts of trouble for the ruling oligarchy.
That trouble could start as early as tomorrow.
Bank managers across France were waiting a little nervously for the start of business on Tuesday after the former football star Eric Cantona urged his compatriots to stage a bank run and trigger a revolution.
Around 40,000 people in France have pledged to withdraw their money from the banks tomorrow. Another 9,000 in UK have pledged to do the same.
You can find the organization’s web site at bankrun2010.com.
Of course this is just one of the many grassroots revolts underway in the world…
The man speaking is Eric Cantona, a famous Manchester United football player…
“We don’t pick up weapons to kill people, to start the revolution… the revolution is really easy to do nowadays. What is the system? The system revolves around the banks. It’s based on the power of the banks… so it must be destroyed starting with the banks. This means that the 3 million people with their placards on the street… they go to the bank, withdraw their money from the banks and these ones collapse… You simply go to the bank in your country and withdraw your money. If there are enough people withdrawing their money, the system collapses. No weapon, no blood, or anything like that.“
What is most interesting about tomorrow’s scheduled bank run is the reaction of the bankers and politicians.
“This is grotesque and irresponsible,” said François Baroin, the French budget minister. Baudoin Prot, the head of the biggest French bank, BNP Paribas, said the Cantona appeal was “ill-judged and counter-productive” and could leave cash-hoarding protesters vulnerable to muggings and burglaries. “This recommendation to withdraw deposits is criminal.”
I love it when a banker calls withdrawing a person’s own cash a “criminal act”…
Our government and freedom is being undermined by a quiet coup. If you want to defend freedom in this country it is your patriotic duty to undermine Wall Street whenever and however possible. It is the moral thing to do. It is the right thing to do. If we’ve learned anything from the last two years its that saving the TBTF banks doesn’t necessarily help the economy. However, giving money to the TBTF banks does help the wealthy elite.”
“Global banks beginning to fear unruly peasants”
Gjohnsit, Daily Kos, 12/6/10
“It’s certainly possible. It depends on the efficacy of the [existing] program. It depends, on inflation. And finally, it depends on how the economy looks.” (Ben Bernanke, when asked if additional Q.E. is possible).
Ben Bernanke, CBS’s “60 Minutes”, 12/6/10
“We have a set of conditions in the stock market that could cause an extraordinary boom in 2011. First, the Fed has set interest rates at zero and is pumping money into the economy. Second, many sectors of the stock market are cheap…
In a zero-percent world, you can’t sit on the sidelines.
The way I see it, the Fed is set on creating asset bubbles. Do your part and hop on board. You could make a heck of a lot of money. If you protect your downside risk by using trailing stops, you’ll be fine.”
“You’re Foolish If You’re Not Invested Right Now”
Steve Sjuggerud, Daily Wealth Premium, 12/6/10
There are plenty of Good Reasons to Forecast a Doomsday Scenario for the Markets, especially the Equities Markets, in 2011, as Dan Ferris points out.
But there are Plenty of Reasons to expect a Boom in the Equities and Key other Markets as well in 2011, as the Bernanke and Sjuggerud Quotes indicate.
So which Scenario is correct?
They Both Are!
How is this possible?
We will explain that in this Article, as well as providing our 2011 Overview Forecasts.
The Doomsday Scenario is certainly an increasingly likely Possibility. USA and Eurozone Debts are already unpayable without Devaluation (or Default for some Eurozone Nations).
And while the so-called Key Emerging and Key Frontier Markets are in somewhat better shape than the USA and Eurozone, their Markets are nonetheless closely linked to the USA and Eurozone, so that all would plunge (and have in the past plunged) together in a Crash. For example, notwithstanding its goal of increasing domestic demand, China still derives much of its income and employment from it exports to the USA and Eurozone.
Other Storm Clouds on the Horizon are the increasing U.S. and Eurozone Money Printing (Q.E. 3, 4, 5…?) and Bailouts. This money printing debases those currencies, thus confiscating the Wealth of Investors, Savers, and Retirees, as well as Risking Hyperinflation not too far down the road.
But as Destructive and Confiscatory as these Fed and other Central Bank Money printing is in The Long Run, in the Short run. It is very conducive to the Creation of Asset Bubbles.
Nonetheless, very recently Bernanke telegraphed the Possibility (High Probability we believe) of Q.E. 3 (and 4 and 5) in the middle and long run.
Consider that the Worsening Unemployment Situation in the U.S. and other Major Nations virtually guarantees More Fed Q.E., thus more Asset and Especially Equities Market Bubbles in the short run. (And that Q.E. virtually guarantee Fiat Currency Purchasing Power Degradation.)
Indeed, Real U.S. unemployment is increasing with Bogus the Official Number at 9.8% and the Real Number at 22.6% (Shadowstats.com).
Shadowstats.com calculates key statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest.
Consider the following Bogus Official versus Real Numbers
Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)
Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported November 17, 2010
1.17% / 8.51% (annualized October, 2010 Rate)
U.S. Unemployment reported December 3, 2010
9.8% / 22.6%
U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported November 23, 2010
3.24% / -1.44%
U.S. M3 reported December 3, 2010 (Month of November, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report / - 2.84%
A sustainable Recovery is not possible without a recovery in employment – 70% of U.S. GDP is Consumer Spending, and if Consumers are increasingly unemployed…well then…
In sum, we are in a situation in which there is Increasingly Great Risk to the Downside, but in which key Near Term Sector Trends are Bullish on the Upside, especially for Equities and Inflation Assets such as Food and Energy.
So how to play this?
First and Foremost, Timing is Key. While Sector Trends could Extend, they can also Violently Reverse at anytime, as we correctly forecast earlier this month they would in a couple of Sectors.
In general, play “The Trend is your Friend” But Be Prepared – to Exit Very Very Quickly (with the exception of Gold Bullion). Let’s see how this Guideline is expressed in our Equities and Precious Metals Overview Forecasts.
Gold & Silver
Since our Alert last week, Gold and Silver soared to Record Highs – a Nominal All-time for Gold, and a 21st century high for Silver.
But, as we write (Wednesday, Dec. 8, 2010), Gold whipsawed and is being severely taken down to $1380ish, and Silver Whipsawed and is off nearly $2 from its recent highs. This does not surprise us. Indeed, we forecast these kinds of whipsaws, The Fed-led Cartel* will take any Opportunity to take down the Precious Metals, notwithstanding the ever-more-Bullish Fundamentals.
*We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled “Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel’s Dark Interventions - III” and Deepcaster’s July, 2010 Letter entitled “Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds” in the ‘Alerts Cache’ and ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at Deepcaster’s website. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at Deepcaster’s website have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.
In fact, recent Fundamental changes (e.g. The No-Tax Increase Tax Deal the terms of which just became public) should if anything have impelled Gold and Silver Higher, since lower taxes are one inflation enabler (since, inter alia, they lead to Higher Budget Deficits), a fact which should, but for Cartel Intervention, push the Precious Metals prices higher.
Indeed, the Bond Market Thinks The Tax Deal is an Inflation Enabler with the 10 Yr Yield Rocketing to over 3.3% on the Tax Deal news.
But the Precious Metals were taken down December 7 and December 8. Yes, The Cartel still has Clout, even though it has been significantly Impaired, so far as the Precious Metals Price Suppression is concerned. See our Articles “Opportunities to Profitably Escape Paper “Wealth” into 2011″ (10/07/10) and “GOLD: Opportunities + Threats = Opportunities” (06/11/10) in the ‘Articles by Deepcaster’ Cache at Deepcaster’s website.
What next? Will Gold and Silver rebound and continue a Choppy March back to recent highs, or beyond, through the end of the Year, impelled upward in the Santa Claus/New Year’s Rally, and by the ongoing Q.E. which makes even more Investors distrustful, understandably, of Fiat Currencies as a Store of Wealth?
Or will the Equities Markets and Key Commodities and Precious Metals be taken down if and as an Equities Takedown launches later this year or early next? Would Silver, and especially Silver Shares be sucked down hardest in such a downdraft? Silver and Silver Shares are especially vulnerable since Silver is an Industrial, as well as Monetary Metal.
Should we expect a Cartel Takedown in Silver and Silver Shares even more severe and protracted than the Whipsaw we saw in the two days earlier this week — up a few weeks into 2011, then down dramatically in the few weeks thereafter?
Recall that in the 2008 Financial Crisis, Silver dropped from $21ish to $9ish, more than 50%.
And in the event of a serious Equities Market Takedown, consider whether Gold and Gold Shares Prices would be taken down as well. For specific Forecasts, see our January, 2011 Letter in the ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at Deepcaster’s website.
Equities
Given the recent Bernanke Signal of more Q.E., will this make The Santa Claus Rally extend beyond the end of 2010 and into 2011?
Or will the Fundamentals impel, and thus should we expect, another Severe Equities Takedown?
In sum, given the Market Action and Political-Interventional considerations, we believe it is likely that the Big Equities Takedown, which we have been forecasting for some time (and which was delayed by Q.E. 2 and now by the prospect of Q.E. 3) will launch in the next few months. See our January Letter for more focused Timing and Target forecasts.
Crude Oil
Crude has thus far been performing as we forecast, thus we repeat the key points in our forecast for the last two weeks.
“As we forecast a couple of Weeks Ago, we see Crude Making “Another Trip up to 88ish during the Santa Claus Rally.” Now this trip will likely not be smooth and we could even see a spike to 90ish…
(And in the middle and long term)… another Big Ride up to $100 or more as Hyperinflation kicks into gear.”
But what now? Consider whether Q.E. will propel Oil over $100? Or will it be taken down?
U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds
Our U.S. T-Notes and Bonds forecast has been right on the money, as well. So we repeat last week’s too. Just over a week ago we said:
“Yesterday these U.S. Treasuries dramatically weakened as yields soared to nearly 3% on the ten year.
Not surprising, with blatant Massive Fed Monetization, a weaker U.S. Dollar, and a Stock Market Rally.
We should see this weakening continue very short term (i.e. Approximately through end-December) as Equities Strengthen and Massive Monetization continues, with the Ten-Year Yield likely popping up over 3%.”
And indeed we did get that pop to 3.3%ish on the ten-year as we write.
For our Forecast for the next very few Months, see our January Letter.
Longer term, U.S. Treasury Securities and Key Eurozone Nation Securities will likely be in very serious trouble (i.e. much higher rates are coming) as it becomes increasingly difficult to fund increasingly unpayable Sovereign Debts.
U.S. Dollar
And our U.S. Dollar Forecast has been on the money as well.
The U.S Dollar is now near the top of the Bounce Range we earlier Forecast at 80 to 82ish basis the USDX.
Now we expect some U.S. Dollar Weakening coincident with (and helping to propel) the Santa Claus/early New Year Rally, which should take the Dollar Back down.
Conclusion
In sum, we are both Bullish and Bearish for 2011.
That means that the key question for investing or shorting, any Sector in 2011 will be Timing.
And for input on Timing regularly consider, as we do, the Interventionals, as well as Technicals and Fundamentals such as Political Decisions, Economic Factors and the Financial Markets Overall Performance.
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